Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8930 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Today

DL 8930 · MEM → SFO

departs 3:01 PM CT · arrives 5:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 8930 · MEM → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?