Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AER LINGUS · FLIGHT EI 101 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

EI 101 · DUB → EWR

departs 1:20 PM GMT · arrives 5:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DUB

Weather at each end

DUB (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

EI 101 · DUB → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?