Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AER LINGUS · FLIGHT EI 120 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

EI 120 · MCO → DUB

departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 8:07 AM GMT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DUB more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DUB?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DUB

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

DUB (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

EI 120 · MCO → DUB

Odds over time

How late will it get to DUB?