Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ETHIOPIAN · FLIGHT ET 3909 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

ET 3909 · DSS → IAH

departs 12:48 PM GMT · arrives 6:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

DSS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 3909 · DSS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?