ET 574 · FCO → ORD

took off 4:29 AM CET (scheduled 4:11 AM CET → 8:22 AM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FCO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

FCO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 574 · FCO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?