Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1035
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 1035 · TPA → DTW
departs 3:04 PM ET · arrives 5:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.