Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1540
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 1540 · IND → MCO
departs 9:02 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 22%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.