Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1565
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 1565 · MCO → CVG
departs 4:57 PM ET · arrives 7:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.