Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 1786 · MCO → RDU
departs 2:42 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.