Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 1807 · PHL → MCO
departs 7:15 AM ET · arrives 9:49 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.