Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1816
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 1816 · DEN → AUS
departs 4:11 PM MT · arrives 7:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.