Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1828
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 1828 · PHX → ORD
departs 7:27 PM MT · arrives 1:04 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 44%
Sun 11/1 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.