F9 2084 · SAN → PHX

departs 7:29 PM PT · arrives 9:01 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2084 · SAN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?