Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2105
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 2105 · DEN → PHX
departs 2:04 PM MT · arrives 3:13 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 46%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.