Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2149
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 2149 · ISP → MCO
departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 9:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ISP
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ISP (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.