Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 2261 · DEN → ELP
departs 4:43 PM MT · arrives 6:48 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±8 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.