Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 2512 · MCO → EWR
departs 10:16 PM ET · arrives 1:05 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.