Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 2541 · SJU → TPA
departs 2:38 PM AT · arrives 5:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 37%
Sat 10/31 33%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at SJU that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.