Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2817
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 2817 · DEN → SAN
departs 2:32 PM MT · arrives 4:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.