Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 2857 · LAX → SFO
departs 8:15 AM PT · arrives 9:46 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 48%
Sun 11/1 48%
Mon 11/2 52%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.