Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3044
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 3044 · ORD → MCO
departs 7:09 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.