Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 3274 · MCO → BWI
departs 5:56 AM ET · arrives 8:32 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from MCO are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.