Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 3417 · SAT → LAS
departs 10:30 PM CT · arrives 11:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 34%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±8 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.11 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.