Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 3449 · ELP → LAS
departs 8:14 PM MT · arrives 9:08 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±11 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.