Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3663
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 3663 · BWI → MCO
departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 5:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 37%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.