Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 3838 · OAK → LAS
departs 5:16 PM PT · arrives 7:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 37%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±11 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.