Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3916
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 3916 · CLE → MCO
departs 1:17 PM ET · arrives 3:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/28 23%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.