Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3983
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 3983 · PHX → LAS
departs 7:28 PM MT · arrives 8:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 50%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 28%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±16 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.