Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4018
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 4018 · DFW → MCO
departs 9:19 AM CT · arrives 1:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.