Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4158
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 4158 · SFO → LAS
departs 10:40 AM PT · arrives 12:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 41%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 39%
Mon 11/2 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.