Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4206 · ONT → LAS
departs 8:26 PM PT · arrives 9:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±12 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.