Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 4286 · DTW → MCO
departs 5:52 PM ET · arrives 8:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.