Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4307
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 4307 · BWI → ORD
departs 9:57 AM ET · arrives 11:09 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 29%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.