Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 4409 · IAD → ATL
departs 8:58 PM ET · arrives 10:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 44%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.