Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 4411 · BWI → FLL
departs 1:56 PM ET · arrives 4:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 40%
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.