Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4418 · ELP → DEN
departs 7:26 PM MT · arrives 9:24 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.