Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4472 · ATL → RDU
departs 9:17 PM ET · arrives 10:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 39%
Tue 11/3 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.