Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4593
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4593 · LAX → SFO
departs 7:07 PM PT · arrives 8:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 48%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 64%
Mon 11/2 52%
Tue 11/3 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±8 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.