Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 45
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 45 · CUN → ORD
departs 10:45 AM EST · arrives 2:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 28%
Sat 10/31 40%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
CUN (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.