Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4626
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4626 · DEN → MEM
departs 3:53 PM MT · arrives 7:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.