Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4646
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 4646 · DEN → MCO
departs 6:36 AM MT · arrives 12:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.