Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4661
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4661 · MCO → PNS
departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 7:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±6 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at PNS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PNS?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
PNS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,533 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.