Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4726
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4726 · MCO → SJU
departs 11:17 PM ET · arrives 2:15 AM AT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at SJU that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.