Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ICELANDAIR · FLIGHT FI 642 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

FI 642 · BWI → KEF

departs 8:44 PM ET · arrives 6:26 AM GMT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at KEF more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KEF?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KEF

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

KEF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FI 642 · BWI → KEF

Odds over time

How late will it get to KEF?