Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
G4 1243 · LEX → SFB
departs 8:45 AM ET · arrives 10:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFB that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX
↓
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
LEX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFB (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.