Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1361
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
G4 1361 · MDT → SRQ
departs 2:07 PM ET · arrives 4:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SRQ that day
↑
2pm departures from MDT are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.