Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 1405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Today
G4 1405 · PHX → TYS
departs 3:43 PM MT · arrives 10:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TYS (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.