G4 262 · SFB → AVL

departs 8:39 PM ET · arrives 10:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from SFB are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFB (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AVL (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 262 · SFB → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?