G4 2857 · XNA → SFB

departs 8:04 PM CT · arrives 11:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ XNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2857 · XNA → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?