Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2970
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
G4 2970 · SFB → FWA
departs 4:59 PM ET · arrives 7:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Odds over time
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at FWA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FWA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFB that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FWA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.14 in
FWA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.